The Derivation and Interpretation of the Lucas Supply Function: Comment
评论了Trescott关于银行倒闭与货币存款比率关系的研究，指出其回归分析可能因内生性问题而高估银行倒闭的影响，强调需证明银行倒闭的外生性才能支持其结论。
most likely reason for this anomaly is that a large number of the bank failures prior to March 1933 were the result, rather than the cause, of the rise in the currencydeposit ratio. Trescott's regressions thereby may increase the degree of feedback, raising the measured correlation but biasing upward the estimated effect of bank failures. The 1930 panic may have been largely exogenous, as noted earlier by Wicker, but the endogeneity of the subsequent crises has never been seriously questioned. If life is to be restored to the view that bank failures were the sole cause of the rise in the currency-deposit ratio, then those failures must first be shown to be exogenous. All that Trescott has shown is that one component of the demand for money was highly correlated with bank failures. That correlation was never in doubt, but it is not sufficient evidence for the conclusions that he draws.