Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data
提出统一的计量方法，检验调查数据中通胀预期的理性，使用SRC预期价格变化数据，考虑序列相关和条件异方差，结果未拒绝无偏性、有效性和正交性假设。
This paper develops a unified econometric approach for testing the rationality of expectations from survey data series. The paper employs the estimation techniques of Hansen (1982) and Eichenbaum, Hansen and Singleton (1982) to conduct tests of unbiasedness, efficiency and orthogonality for the SRC expected price change data. In contrast to the existing literature, the analysis takes careful account of serial correlation and conditional heteroskedasticity in the disturbance terms. The results do not reject the properties of unbiasedness, efficiency or othogonality for this survey data series. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.