Persistent deficits and the market value of government debt
检验加拿大战后公共财政政策是否满足借贷约束，通过协整分析发现实际债务与盈余的关系不符合政府跨期预算平衡，表明政府可能通过发行新债或出售资产来支付利息。
Abstract This paper investigates whether postwar Canadian public financial policy satisfies a borrowing constraint. Direct tests of the present‐value relation suggested by this constraint shed light on the sustainability of current policy. We examine monthly data on Canadian federal government finances using tests for cointegration. The finding is that the joint behaviour of real debt and real surpluses is inconsistent with intertemporal budget balance for the government. One interpretation of this finding is that the government is systematically paying real returns to bondholders by issuing further debt. Alternatively, bondholders may expect the government to finance future interest payments from a source other than primary surpluses, e.g. the sale of physical assets.