'Wait Unemployment' in Europe
提出一个“等待失业”模型，解释西欧长期失业率差异，认为失业者可能拒绝低薪工作以等待高薪机会，而失业救济的慷慨程度会影响失业率。
Unemployment Michael Burda The sustained increase in unemployment rates in Western Europe is a major policy problem, not least because of the increasing significance of long-term unemployment. A large part of cross-country differences in long-term unemployment rates can be predicted by a simple model of ‘wait unemployment’. Potential workers may refuse low-paying jobs and invest in unemployment if this increases the chance that they will subsequently be offered a higher-paying job. This investment decision is sensitive both to the level of unemployment benefit and to its duration and coverage of the labour force. More generous unemployment benefit will tend to increase average unemployment rates. The analysis can also explain how increases in the labour force contribute to unemployment, and why service sector employment has grown more slowly in Europe than in the US over the past 15 years. Unemployment benefit is not set in a vacuum; the paper also considers forces governing the evolution of benefit rates and entitlements during the period.