On Testing Business Models
研究在看似有利条件下对一家公司商业模式进行实证测试，发现测试结果仅微弱支持假设，但高管信心不减，且其反应符合贝叶斯理性预期，据此构建了理解不同情境下测试商业模式预期价值的框架。
ABSTRACT This study explores decisions related to formal empirical tests of business models and interpretations and uses of those tests. Business models describe managers' rationales as to how their organizations will achieve success. This study documents a test of one company's business model under seemingly favorable conditions for such a test—a successful single-product firm following a consistent strategy over a long period of time with stable management and publicly traded stock. Although the findings provide only weak support for the hypothesized business model, the confidence of the company's top managers in their business model remained high. Further analyses reveal that the managers' response to the test results is consistent with that expected of Bayesian-rational agents. Our analyses provide the basis for development of a framework for understanding the expected value of testing business models in various circumstances. This framework might explain apparent contradictions between previous studies containing normative statements regarding the value of testing business models. Data Availability: The data used in this study are derived from a proprietary dataset and public sources.