地铁、罢工与缓行:公共交通对交通拥堵的影响

Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion

American Economic Review · 2014
被引 423 · 同刊同年前 10%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究发现,当洛杉矶公交系统罢工时,高速公路平均延误增加47%,表明公交对缓解拥堵的作用远超以往认知。

Abstract

Public transit accounts for 1 percent of US passenger miles traveled but attracts strong public support. Using a simple choice model, we predict that transit riders are likely to be individuals who commute along routes with severe roadway delays. These individuals' choices thus have high marginal impacts on congestion. We test this prediction with data from a strike in 2003 by Los Angeles transit workers. Estimating a regression discontinuity design, we find that average highway delay increases 47 percent when transit service ceases. We find that the net benefits of transit systems appear to be much larger than previously believed.

公共交通交通拥堵罢工回归间断设计