The Declining Fortunes of the Young Since 2000
研究发现，1990年代大学毕业生从事认知工作的概率随代际上升，但2000年后进入的群体这一概率下降且职业发展曲线变平，与工资变化模式一致，反映了认知任务需求先增后减的趋势。
We document that successive cohorts of college and post-college degree graduates experienced an increase in the probability of obtaining cognitive jobs both at the start of their careers and with time in the labor market in the 1990s. However, this pattern reversed for cohorts entering after 2000; profiles of the proportion of a cohort in cognitive occupations since school completion fall and become flatter with successive cohorts. Since cohort-wage profiles display a similar pattern, these findings appear to fit with a strong increase in demand for cognitive tasks in the 1990s followed by a decline in the 2000s.