Cross‐sectional analysis of Swedish stock returns with time‐varying beta: the Swedish stock market 1983–96
用双变量GARCH模型估计瑞典股市的时变贝塔，发现条件贝塔比普通最小二乘法更准确，但贝塔系数不显著，而账面市值比和杠杆率显著且稳健。
This paper analyses the ability of beta and other factors, like firm size and book‐to‐market, to explain cross‐sectional variation in average stock returns on the Swedish stock market for the period 1983–96. We use a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process to estimate time‐varying betas for asset returns. The estimated variances of these betas, derived from a Taylor series approximation, are used for correcting errors in variables. An extreme bound analysis is utilized for testing the sensitivity of the estimated coefficients to changes in the set of included explanatory variables. Our results show that the estimated conditional beta is a more accurate measure of the true market beta than the beta estimated by OLS. The coefficient for beta is not significantly different from zero, while the variables book‐to‐market and leverage have significant coefficients, and the latter coefficients are also robust to model specification. Excluding the down turn 1990–92 from the sample shows that the significance of the risk premium for leverage might be considered as an industry effect during this extreme period. Finally, we find a close dependence between the risk premium for beta and that for size and book‐to‐market. The omission of each of these variables may cause statistical bias in the estimated coefficient for beta.