Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models for Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding
结合随机动态规划和失衡计量方法，估计了一个可储存初级商品市场的动态非线性理性预期模型，捕捉了私人库存、政府干预失衡效应以及预期和风险对供给与库存决策的影响。
Stochastic-dynamic programming and disequilibrium econometric methods are combined to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of a dynamic nonlinear rational expectations model of a market for a storable primary commodity. The structural model captures the essential processes governing the dynamics of primary commodity markets including: the nontrivial role of private stockholding, the disequilibrium effects of government intervention, and the impact of expectations and risk on private supply and stockholding decisions.