The Birth of a New Market
构建了一个序贯决策模型，研究企业家在私人预期异质性下如何决定是否进入潜在新市场，并发现这种异质性既促进可行市场的诞生，也可能导致非可行市场的过度进入。
We consider a sequential decision model in which entrepreneurs decide on whether to enter a potential new market. Individual entrepreneurs have private expectations about the new market's viability. Over time, they learn about its viability from their own experience as well as that of earlier entrepreneurs. The distribution of the private expectations is said to be heterogeneous if external prior beliefs about the market's viability exist. We show that heterogeneity of expectations cuts both ways: while it facilitates the birth of viable markets, it also generates, via the existence of extremal beliefs, ‘excessive' entry in non-viable markets.