Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach
使用符号限制的结构VAR模型，研究美国劳动力市场中失业与职位空缺变动时工人流动率的动态特征，发现离职率上升是失业增加的关键驱动因素，且不同人口群体表现有差异。
This paper establishes robust dynamic features of the worker reallocation process in the US labor market. I use structural VARs with sign restrictions, which take the form of restricting the short-run negative relationship between vacancies and unemployment (i.e., Beveridge curve). Despite the ‘weakness’ of these restrictions, they reveal a clear, unambiguous pattern that, when unemployment increases and vacancies drop, (i) both the separation rate and gross separations rise quickly and remain persistently high, (ii) the job finding rate and vacancies drop in a hump‐shaped manner, and (iii) gross hires respond little initially, but eventually rise. These results point to the importance of job loss in understanding US labor market dynamics. This pattern also holds with respect to different kinds of shocks that induce the same Beveridge curve relationship. This paper also considers the ‘disaggregate model’, which uses data disaggregated into six demographic groups and incorporates transitions into and out of the labor force. I show that the separation rate continues to play a dominant role among prime‐age male workers, while, for other groups, changes in the job finding rate are more important. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.