Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs
论证在财政VAR模型中纳入通过叙事方法识别的结构性冲击，可避免VAR移动平均表示不可逆问题，从而识别和估计财政乘数。
This paper argues in favor of empirical models built by including in fiscal VAR models structural shocks identified via the narrative method. We first show that “narrative” shocks are orthogonal to the relevant information set a fiscal VAR. We then derive impulse responses to these shocks. The use of narrative shocks does not require the inversion of the moving-average representation of a VAR for the identification of the relevant shocks. Therefore, within this framework, fiscal multipliers can be identified and estimated even when, in the presence of “fiscal foresight,” the MA representation of the VARs is not invertible.