Growth Market Forecasting Revisited: A Look Back at a Look Forward
研究了1960至1979年间商业媒体中增长市场预测的准确性，发现失败预测多因忽视市场基本面而迷恋技术或时代精神，成功预测则基于简单正确的假设并聚焦成本与性能优势，为管理者评估当前预测提供指南。
This study examines the accuracy of growth market forecasts published in the business press between 1960 and 1979. Many of these forecasts failed because they did not consider fundamental aspects of the markets they sought to serve but were enamored of the underlying technologies or unduly swayed by the spirit of the times. Successful forecasts were based on simple, but correct, assumptions regarding the future and forcused on costs and performance advantages. This article presents categories describing the general reasons why some forecasts succeeded, while others failed, and offers some guidelines for managers to better assess current predictions of market growth and to avoid the pitfalls of the past.