Fitting observed and theoretical choices – women's choices about prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome
通过访谈78名有孕史的女性，比较她们对唐氏综合征产前诊断的实际选择与三种理论模型（期望效用理论、等级依赖理论、累积前景理论）的预测，发现累积前景理论拟合最好，需考虑主观概率转换和损失厌恶。
Choices regarding prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome - the most frequent chromosomal defect - are particularly relevant to decision analysis, since women's decisions are based on the assessment of their risk of carrying a child with Down syndrome, and involve tradeoffs (giving birth to an affected child vs procedure-related miscarriage). The aim of this study, based on face-to-face interviews with 78 women aged 25-35 with prior experience of pregnancy, was to compare the women' expressed choices towards prenatal diagnosis with those derived from theoretical models of choice (expected utility theory, rank-dependent theory, and cumulative prospect theory). The main finding obtained in this study was that the cumulative prospect model fitted the observed choices best: both subjective transformation of probabilities and loss aversion, which are basic features of the cumulative prospect model, have to be taken into account to make the observed choices consistent with the theoretical ones.