Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends and Common Cycles
利用协整和序列相关共同特征信息，将美国主要地区的人均收入分解为趋势和周期成分，发现区域周期波动性差异大，但除远西地区外周期响应高度同步，并探讨了制造业份额、国防支出、油价和货币政策等因素的影响。
This paper investigates trend and cycle dynamics in per capita income for the major U.S. regions during the 1956-1995 period. Cointegration and serial correlation common features information are used in jointly decomposing the series into trend and cycle components. We find considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, we find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response for all regions but the Far West. Possible sources underlying differences in regional cycles are explored, such as the share of a region's income accounted for by manufacturing, defense spending as a proportion of a region's income, oil price shocks, and the stance of monetary policy. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that the share of manufacturing in a region seems to account for little of the variation in regional cycles relative to national cycles, but manufacturing share differentially affects trend growth for four of the seven regions studied. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology