Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar
用非参数密度估计和核平滑技术，分析马达加斯加大米价格变动对农民福利的即时影响，发现贫困农民受价格上涨和波动的负面冲击，而大农户和特定地区则从中获益。
Abstract This paper uses nonparametric density estimation and kernel smoothing techniques to examine the instantaneous distributional implications of rice price changes in Madagascar. While many farmers do not participate in product markets as either buyers or sellers, and net sales or marketable surplus are fairly small for many others, the roughly one‐third of rice farmers who fall below the poverty line face significant negative first‐order welfare effects from increases in the mean or variance of rice prices. Conversely, the first‐order gains from rice price increases are highly concentrated among the largest rice farmers and particular regions in Madagascar.