Import Demand with Rational Expectations: Estimates for Bauxite, Cocoa, Coffee, and Petroleum
提出一种先验确定进口需求模型中分布滞后结构的方法，基于理性预期建模，将前瞻性决策规则转化为有限分布滞后模型，并利用美国1954-1980年数据对铝土矿、可可、咖啡和石油进行估计。
Abstrac-t-We offer a method for establishing the distributed lag structure in import demand models a priori. We consider a firm which imports raw materials in a world of uncertainty. Traditional considerations of adjustment and inventory holding costs lead to a forward looking import decision rule. Linear rational expectations modelling allows us to transform the forward looking rule into a finite distributed lag specification. While the resulting model is similar in form to earlier empirical models, it is not subject to the Lucas Critique. The model is fitted to U.S. data over the period 1954-1980.