Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)
证明，拥有不同先验信念的理性代理人倾向于对自己的成功概率过度乐观，并导致他们将失败归因于外部因素、将成功归因于自身选择等偏差。
Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than underestimated, the likelihood of success. After studying the comparative statics of this mechanism, I show that it also causes agents to attribute failure to exogenous factors but success to their own choice of action, to disproportionately believe that they will outperform others, to overestimate the precision of their estimates, and to overestimate their control over the outcome.