THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE RELATIVE ACCURACY OF PROBABILISTIC VS. DETERMINISTIC PREDICTIONS AND THE LEVEL OF PREDICTION‐TASK DIFFICULTY*
通过实验研究预测任务难度如何影响概率预测与确定性预测的相对准确性，发现低难度时确定性预测更准，高难度时概率预测更准。
ABSTRACT An experimental paradigm was constructed to assess the impact of prediction‐task difficulty on the relative accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions. The results strongly support the hypothesis that the accuracy of probabilistic versus deterministic predictions is related to the level of difficulty inherent in the prediction task. At low levels of prediction‐task difficulty, deterministic predictions were mort accurate than probabilistic predictions; the converse was true at high levels of difficulty.