Forecasting accuracy: comparing the relative effectiveness of practices between seven developed countries
研究了德国、日本等七个发达国家在预测实践上的差异，发现权力距离、个人主义等文化维度部分解释了预测方法、主观因素使用等差异，对跨国管理决策有参考价值。
This study investigates the effect of forecast practices on forecast error for seven developed countries. The questions it addresses are: What are the differences and similarities between countries in how the forecast is developed and how accurate it is? Does the purpose of the forecast affect its accuracy? Does the use of quantitative techniques improve forecast error? How does the forecaster's use of subjective factors affect forecast accuracy? And are there significant differences in the underlying country's cultural traits that affect these practices? Most forecast empirical studies investigate the degree of accuracy and the quantitative methods used to estimate forecast accuracy (Mentzler and Cox, 1984). However, to date, no study has investigated the cultural variables underlying the forecast variables. These variables are well-known in the international behavioral literature (Hofstede 1980, 1983, 1994; Ronen and Shenkar, 1985). This study investigates forecasting practices in Germany, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden and the United States to determine the differences among managerial behaviors that affect forecast accuracy. According to Hofstede (1994), there are distinct cultural differences between countries in terms of power–distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and masculinity/femininity. These cultural differences provide reasons for believing there exists between country differences in: forecast development, how the forecast is used, the degree of use of models, and subjective factors used. This study's results suggest that each country has a different perspective on the basic forecasting development, methods subjective factors considered in the forecast. These differences partially can be explained by Hofstede's four cultural values dimensions: power–distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and masculinity/femininity indices. The statistical analysis suggests that power–distance tends to increase computer use along with statistical methods and decrease the use of internal subjective information. Uncertainty avoidance does not significantly affect forecast procedures. Firms in countries with high individualism tend to rely more heavily on subjective information. Firms in countries that have high masculinity tend to use subjective information to gain an advantage over their competitors. Therefore, the general conclusions are that between country differences in decision-making practices can be partially explained by cultural factors.