Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run
发现购买力平价的偏离在固定和浮动汇率时期、多国及不同频率数据中均表现出与鞅行为惊人一致的规律，并提出基于债券金融套利的替代解释。
ABSTRACT This paper demonstrates that deviations from purchasing power parity reveal a remarkable and possibly startling consistency with martingale behavior during both fixed and flexible rate periods, for a wide variety of countries, and in both monthly and annual data. Since this pattern appears to be much more general than one would expect on the basis of models founded on international commodity arbitrage, the paper proposes an alternative explanation which instead relies on financial arbitrage in bonds as the underlying mechanism.