Supply Shocks and Net Exports: Some Evidence for Australia
利用澳大利亚20世纪数据，检验了跨期替代理论在开放经济中的预测：临时性农业供给冲击会减少净出口，而非影响利率。
The theory of intertemporal substitution predicts that households will attempt to smooth the fluctuations in consumption caused by temporary supply shocks. This substitution leads to an increase in the short-term interest rate when temporary decreases in supply occur. Observing agricultural supply shocks, Dave Denslow and Mark Rush (1989) found evidence to support this theory in a closed economy (nineteenth century France). In an open economy, a temporary drop in agricultural output would decrease net exports rather than affect the interest rate. Evidence to support this theory is found using twentieth-century Australian data. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.