Predicting Tender Offer Success: A Logistic Analysis
构建并检验了一个预测要约收购成功概率的模型，发现提高收购溢价、支付征集费、增加收购方持股比例会提高成功率，而目标管理层反对或竞争性出价会降低成功率。
This research develops and tests a model for the prediction of tender offer outcomes. Variables that increase the supply of “obtainable shares” (such as increased bid premiums or the payment of solicitation fees) are shown to increase the probability of success. Increased ownership of target firm shares by the bidder also increases the probability of success. Variables that impede the tendering of shares (such as target management opposition or a competing bid) decrease the probability of success. Tests of the model utilizing both linear and logistic analysis support the theoretical constructs and help resolve the paradoxical findings of previous research.