Credibility and Stabilization
探讨稳定化计划中“可信度”的含义，构建了一个计划可能失败的模型，分析影响成功概率的因素，为稳定化提供实证理论。
The paper deals with stabilization as a one-shot problem to ask what "credibility" means in a world where programs will succeed with probability one. A model is spelled out where the equilibrium program has some ex ante probability of failure. The model draws attention to the factors that raise or lower the probability of success of a stabilization program and thus offers a positive theory of stabilization. Reputation that emerges as a central element in repeated games has no role in this model.