Forecast Rationality in Small Firms
通过对大量小企业的纵向调查，研究了企业主或经理的收入预测是否理性，发现他们虽不普遍乐观，但预测往往过于极端，且过度外推过去的增长，这符合过度自信和代表性启发式的影响。
A large sample of small firms was longitudinally surveyed to investigate the rationality of revenue forecasts made within such firms. The analysis helps to address the dearth of research investigating owner/managers' forecasts of growth in firms and their degree of accuracy. Contrary to conventional expectations, the results do not support the contention that forecasts made by the managers of small firms are optimistic. Although systematic overestimation was not found, managers did tend to make forecasts that were generally too extreme, and tended to overextrapolate previous growth. These results are consistent with propositions that overconfidence biases and representative heuristics influence the revenue forecasts made in small firms.