The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance
基于台湾15个县市1977-1996年面板数据，研究天气对七种主要作物产量的影响，并模拟发现农作物保险可在气候变化下稳定收入、降低农户风险。
Abstract This study examines the impact of weather on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977–1996 period. The unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The uncertain yield outcome is incorporated into a discrete stochastic programming model to address a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of a crop insurance policy under different climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest that crop insurance may stabilize revenues and protect farmers from exposures to increasing weather‐related risk.