Decision Making Processes Under Uncertainty: An Econometric Analysis
利用印度农村日劳动力市场的面板数据，检验了三种预期效用模型对工人应对非自愿失业不确定性的解释力，发现线性主观概率模型优于非线性模型，且工人风险厌恶、保留工资非正。
This paper utilizes panel data from rural India on a daily rated labour market to examine how workers deal with the uncertainty which arises from the existence of involuntary unemployment. In particular, it measures the relative explanatory power of the three models which the literature suggests should better fit the conditions prevailing in this market: the Expected Utility Model (EUM) with linear objective probabilities, the EUM with linear subjective probabilities and the EUM with non-linear subjective probabilities. The econometric analysis indicates that the EUM with linear has to be preferred to that with non-linear probabilities. Moreover, it supports the hypothesis that the decision making model is under uncertainty and that people work out their subjective probabilities through their past experiences. Finally, agents in the sample turn out to be risk-averse and not to have a positive reservation wage.