Leading Indicators for the Service Sector
构建了服务业综合同步指数和增长周期，并筛选出多个宏观经济先行指标，合成先行指数，其增长率能提前预警服务业增长的重大波动。
Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.