On the estimation of simultaneous‐equations error‐components models with an application to a model of developing country foreign trade
提出一种广义Fuller-Battese变换来估计联立方程误差成分模型，并应用于31个发展中国家1964-1987年的进出口面板数据，发现汇率政策对短期外部失衡调整作用有限，主要依赖总需求管理。
Abstract An empirical balance of payments model involving the demand and supply of imports and exports for 31 developing countries is estimated utilizing panel data over 1964‐1987. In order to compute error‐components 3SLS estimates of this model, which requires different instruments for different equations, we propose a generalization of the Fuller‐Battese transformation to obtain GMM estimates. Our empirical results suggest that very little of the short‐run adjustment in external imbalances is likely to be achieved by exchange rate policies, and most of the burden must fall on aggregate demand management.