Relative Commodity Prices and Cointegration
利用1900-1986年时间序列数据重新评估普雷维什-辛格假说，发现初级商品与制成品价格存在协整关系，长期相对价格波动平稳，不支持该假说。
Abstract The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities is reassessed, on the basis of recently available time series data, for 1900–1986. Special attention is given to adequate dynamic modeling of price fluctuations. Primary and manufactured-goods prices are found to be cointegrated. The hypothesis of stationarity for the long-run relative-price movements cannot be rejected. The empirical evidence does not support the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. KEY WORDS: Commodity marketsDynamic modelingEconomic developmentInternational tradeTime series analysis