Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries
研究发现，汇率制度灵活性越低，发展中国家主权债券利差越高、发行概率越低；从浮动转向固定汇率会使发行概率下降5.5%、利差平均上升88个基点。
This paper analyzes how exchange rate policy affects the issuance and pricing of sovereign bonds for developing countries. We find that countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes pay higher spreads and are less likely to issue bonds. Changing a free‐floating regime to a fixed regime decreases the likelihood of bond issuance by 5.5% and increases the spread by 88 basis points on average. Countries with real overvaluation have higher spreads and higher bond issuance probabilities. The effects of real overvaluation on sovereign bonds tend to be magnified for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes.