Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries
研究了经合组织国家财政状况（债务水平和财政余额）对长期政府债券收益率的影响，利用财政预测数据控制内生性，发现财政恶化会推高债券收益率，预计到2015年使美国债券收益率上升约60个基点。
We examine the effect of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long‐term government bond yields in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). To control for the endogenity of fiscal positions to the business cycle we utilize forward projections of fiscal positions from the OECD's Economic Outlook. In a panel regression over the period from 1988 to 2007, we find a robust and significant effect of fiscal positions on long‐term bond yields. Our estimates imply that the marginal effect of the projected deterioration of fiscal positions adds about 60 basis points to U.S. bond yields by 2015, with effects on other G‐7 bond yields generally being smaller.