Do Direct Cash Flow Disclosures Help Predict Future Operating Cash Flows and Earnings?
研究直接法现金流量表披露能否帮助预测未来经营现金流和收益，发现直接法项目难以从其他报表可靠估计，且纳入预测模型后显著提升预测效果，市场参与者也会利用这些信息。
ABSTRACT: Motivated by recent FASB, IASB, and CFA Institute comments, we explore the predictive value of direct method cash flow disclosures. A primary stated purpose of the direct method is to better forecast future performance. To examine this purpose, we first document that direct method line items, such as cash received from customers, are not reliably estimable using income statements and either balance sheets or indirect method statements of cash flows. When these stimation (articulation) errors are included in cash flows and earnings forecasting models, forecasting performance significantly improves. In addition, employing a future ERC (FERC) methodology, we find evidence suggesting that market participants utilize direct method disclosures for their stated purpose: to better forecast future operating performance. After conducting several tests for self-selection concerns, we conclude that the direct method is valuable to investors when forecasting future cash flows and earnings.