瓦尔拉斯不确定性论与凯恩斯宏观经济学

Walrasian Indeterminacy and Keynesian Macroeconomics

Review of Economic Studies · 1986
被引 60
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

指出代际交叠模型存在根本不确定性,短期预期不受理性假设约束,并说明在完美预见和市场出清下,既可推导凯恩斯政策结论,也可推导新古典中性命题。

Abstract

Overlapping generations models with or without production or a portfolio demand for money display a fundamental indeterminacy. Expectations matter; and they are not, in the short run, constrained by the hypotheses of agent optimization, rational expectations, and market clearing. No short run policy analysis is possible without some explicit understanding of how agents expect the economy to respond to the policy. In this framework of perfect foresight and market clearing prices, it is possible to make Keynesian assumptions about the rigidity of money wages and the exogeneity of "animal spirits" of investors, to use the standard IS-LM apparatus, and to derive Keynesian conclusions about the short run effectiveness of policy. Alternatively, starting from different but no less rational expectations, one can derive the "new classical" neutrality propositions.

瓦尔拉斯不确定性凯恩斯宏观经济学世代交叠模型预期形成