Maturity structure of public debt and expected bond returns
使用政府债务期限构成的细分指标，检验期限结构变化的相关性，发现期限构成有时能预测未来超额收益，并与期限溢价和短期利率未来变化相关，支持不同期限债券非完全替代的观点。
The relevancy of changes in maturity structure is tested using a disaggregated measure of the maturity composition of government debt. Tests based on predictions from the market efficiency and rational expectations theories find evidence that maturity composition occasionally helps to predict future excess returns. The maturity composition is also found to be correlated with the term premium and future changes in the short rate. The evidence supports the claim that bonds with all the same characteristics except maturity are not perfect substitutes.