A safety-first approach to dynamic cropping decisions
使用随机动态规划方法，为华盛顿州东南部的春大麦制定风险敏感的灵活种植计划，发现更强的短期风险规避会导致更保守的种植策略，需要更高的春季土壤水分阈值。
A risk-sensitive optimal flexible cropping plan for spring barley in southeastern Washington state is identified by stochastic dynamic programming. State transformation equations are determined from data generated by a process simulation model. Katoaka's safety-first criterion is proposed as an operational procedure for discounting payoff values for differential riskiness. Stronger short-run risk aversion leads to the use of more conservative optimal flexcrop strategies which require higher threshold spring soil moisture levels for cropping. The dynamically optimal barley flexcrop strategies generate similar expected net returns but decrease soil less relative to a fixed winter wheat-fallow rotation; however, annual income risk increases. Copyright 1997 by Oxford University Press.