International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar
分析了过去十年美国经常账户赤字的两大原因：美国对外国商品需求增加和外国对美国资产需求增加，并建立模型探讨美元汇率未来走势及对欧元、日元、人民币等货币的影响。
TWO MAIN FORCES underlie the large U.S. current account deficits of the past decade. The first is an increase in U.S. demand for foreign goods, partly due to relatively faster U.S. growth and partly to shifts in demand away from U.S. goods toward foreign goods. The second is an increase in foreign demand for U.S. assets, starting with high foreign private demand for U.S. equities in the second half of the 1990s, and later shifting to foreign private and then central bank demand for U.S. bonds in the 2000s. Both forces have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid-1990s, accompanied by a real dollar appreciation until late 2001 and a real depreciation since. The depreciation acceler-ated in late 2004, raising the issues of whether and how much more is to come and, if so, against which currencies: the euro, the yen, or the Chinese renminbi. We address these issues by developing a simple model of exchange rate and current account determination, which we then use to interpret