THE EFFECT OF BSE ON THE REVENUE FROM BEEF FATSTOCK
用回归模型和ARIMA模型预测英国肉牛在正常市场条件下的价格，对比实际收入，发现疯牛病导致1989年10月至1990年9月间收入下降8.6%至11.8%。
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) has had a considerable effect on the revenues received from finished cattle in the UK. Forecasting models are used to measure the extent of the drop in revenues by determining what the price would have been under normal marketing conditions. The models used are a regression model, which, although representing a simplified view of the market, takes account of price expectations, and an ARIMA‐type model. Comparison between the forecasts of the two models forms part of the validation procedure. The results using the regression forecasts indicated a loss of 8.6 percent while the ARIMA forecasts indicated a loss of 11.8 percent over the year October 1989 to September 1990.