Closing the Gap between Risk Estimation and Decision Making: Efficient Management of Trade-Related Invasive Species Risk
研究了二元行动、二元结果的决策问题对风险估计的影响，利用生物进口入侵性数据比较了最大似然、贝叶斯和最大效用三种方法，发现最大效用方法对模型设定误差不敏感，能在模型不确定时带来显著经济收益。
This paper examines the implications of a binary action, binary outcome decision problem for estimating risk. We use data on the invasiveness of biological imports to develop the first comparison of two classical methods—maximum likelihood and Bayesian—against a third, the recently developed maximum utility (MU) approach. MU estimation uniquely takes advantage of the structure of the decision problem, which depends on a local rather than global fit to the model. Extending methods to account for an endogenously stratified sample, we show that the MU approach is less sensitive to specification error and can offer significant economic gains under model uncertainty. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.