Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements
研究了汇率和货币供给变动对财政紧缩宏观经济结果的影响，发现有利结果前通常有显著实际贬值，且贬值能改善预期并促进私人消费增长。
We examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find: (i) contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions associated with a less favorable macroeconomic outcome and (ii) contractions preceded by real depreciations improve expectations about future income and generate higher private consumption growth. We discuss policy implications for countries both outside and inside the EMU.