Risk, Futures Pricing, and the Organization of Production in Commodity Markets
研究现货和期货市场的均衡，分析初级生产者（种植者）和中间生产者（加工商）的套期保值行为，发现加工商倾向于做多套保，与希克斯理论相反；低交易成本导致期货价格向下偏差，高交易成本则使种植者退出期货市场并逆转偏差方向，期货交易还会影响产业组织。
This paper examines equilibrium in a spot and futures market with both primary producers (growers) and intermediate producers (processo rs). For a commodity that is subject to output shocks, processors tend to hedge long, in contrast with J. R. Hicks's theory of futures hedging. Nevertheless, if transaction costs are low, the two-stage production process brings about a downward futures price bias, consistent with Hicks's pricing prediction. But if costs of trading futures are high, growers tend to be differentially driven from the futures market, reversing the direction of the bias. Futures trading may also affect the organization of industry. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.