Valuing Forecast Characteristics in a Dynamic Agricultural Production System
利用动态规划模型评估伊利诺伊州中部玉米生产中季节性气候预测的价值，发现预测准确性与提前期之间存在权衡，较早的低精度预测可能比晚来的高精度预测更有价值。
Abstract A dynamic programming model of east‐central Illinois corn production is utilized to determine the value of seasonal climate forecasts. Results indicate that the value of climate forecasts is sensitive to economic conditions as well as forecast characteristics. A trade‐off between forecast accuracy and lead time exists. A less accurate forecast received earlier in the production process may be more valuable than a more accurate forecast received later. Additional characteristics evaluated include forecast periods of greatest importance, prior knowledge assumptions, and interactions between forecasting adjacent periods.