Measuring Business Cycle Time
检验宏观经济变量是否按商业周期转折点而非日历时间演化，发现经济时间尺度与商业周期时间尺度关联微弱，挑战了传统商业周期分析的基础。
The business cycle analysis of Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell and the National Bureau of Economic Research presumed that aggregate economic variables evolve on a time scale defined by business cycle turning points rather than by months or quarters. Do macroeconomic variables appear to evolve on an economic rather than a calendar time scale? Evidence presented here suggests that they do. However, the estimated economic time scales are only weakly related to business cycle time scales, providing evidence against the view underlying traditional business cycle analysis. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.