World price uncertainty and agricultural policy formulation under rational expectations
构建了一个理性预期贸易模型，分析不同农业支持机制如何影响世界价格不确定性，发现自由贸易降低价格波动的结论仅在特定条件下成立。
This paper presents a model of how different farm support mechanisms affect world price uncertainty. This issue is addressed within the framework of a rational expectations trade model for a storable commodity market. Here, absorption of physical production shocks and that of exogenous variable (mainly macroeconomic) shocks are tracked separately and are found to be quite different. This model leads to the conclusion that the alleged variance-reducing impact of the free trade regime, while plausible, is a special case of a more general model in which the impact is ambiguous.