Automated Discovery in Managerial Problem Formulation: Formation of Causal Hypotheses for Cognitive Mapping
研究了一个自动发现系统，它通过概率线索感知环境变量并生成因果假设，帮助管理者在宽泛的管理领域形成问题认知，并在模拟环境中验证了其有效性。
ABSTRACT Development of knowledge acquisition techniques known as automated discovery systems has occurred in deep and narrow domains of knowledge. Automated discovery is the generation of new knowledge by a computer system on its own, without the help of another knowledge source. This paper describes research and validation of an automated discovery system for a wide and shallow domain—business management. The system continues recent advances in expert systems research which have enhanced cognitive mapping, a problem formulation tool. The system perceives the behavior of distal variables in the environment through probabilistic cues‐to‐causality, and generates previously unknown hypotheses by aggregating the probabilities into a single criterion of causal relatedness. The system is validated against the source code of a simulated managerial environment, and causal relationships posited by decision makers experienced in the play of the gaming simulator.