The impact of agricultural productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets
使用六区域十三部门一般均衡模型，研究前苏联和东欧农业生产力增长对世界农产品市场及双边贸易流的影响，发现生产力增长显著提升该地区农业产出和出口，但前苏联农业净进口增加，而东欧净贸易平衡改善。
This paper studies the impact of productivity increases in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe on world agricultural markets and the regions’ bilateral and sectoral agricultural trade flows. We use a six-region, 13-sector general equilibrium model. We find that productivity increases lead to a significant increase in the regions’ agricultural output and exports and the former Soviet Union's agricultural imports. The former Soviet Union's net agricultural imports increase, whereas Eastern Europe's net agricultural trade balances improve. Overall, agricultural exporters will benefit, particularly, if productivity increases are not limited to or disproportionally high in agriculture.