General purpose technologies ‘Engines of growth’?
探讨蒸汽机、电动机等通用目的技术是否驱动经济增长,分析其普遍性、改进潜力和创新互补性如何导致规模报酬递增,并指出分散经济可能因市场交易问题而难以充分利用这些技术。
Whole eras of technical progress and growth appear to be driven by a few 'General Purpose Technologies' (GPT's), such as the steam engine, the electric motor, and semiconductors. GPT's are characterized by pervasiveness, inherent potential for technical improvements, and 'innovational complementarities', giving rise to increasing returns-to-scale. However, a decentralized economy will have difficulty in fully exploiting the growth opportunities of GPT's: arms-length market transactions between the GPT and its users may result in 'too little, too late' innovation. Likewise, difficulties in forecasting the technological developments of the other side can lower the rate of technical advance of all sectors.