The simple dynamics of a debt crisis
研究当债权人设定信贷上限以防止债务违约时，一个“不耐”的新古典经济体的最优增长路径，发现信贷约束触发后外资流入和投资骤降，人均产出、消费和实际工资逐渐下降，而实际利率上升，表明高外债与低增长相关的债务危机可在无意外冲击或政策失误时发生。
Optimal growth path of an ‘impatient’, neoclassical economy is studied, when creditors impose a credit ceiling to prevent debt repudiation. The ceiling becomes binding in finite time. When the credit-constrained regime begins, foreign capital inflows and domestic investment fall abruptly. Output per-capita, consumption, and real wages gradually decline, while the real interest rate rises. These results show that debt crises, in which high external debt is associated to low growth, can occur even in the absence of unanticipated shocks, policy mistakes, or ‘debt overhang’ effects. If distortionary policies cause ‘impatient’ behavior, the model is consistent with chronic capital flight in the debtor country.