Regional Agricultural Endowments and Shifts of Poverty Trap Equilibria: Evidence from Ethiopian Panel Data
利用埃塞俄比亚农村家庭调查数据，用非参数方法和分位数回归分析贫困陷阱均衡随时间与区域的变化，发现全国收入增长下最贫困地区仍陷于低水平均衡。
We examine changes in patterns of equilibria over time and across regions, applied to the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey. We revisit incidence of multiple equilibria using new nonparametric techniques, and examine single equilibria that remain stagnant below the poverty line. Using quantile regressions, we identify differences across the income distribution. We introduce the empirical analysis of sequences of equilibria. We identify a single equilibrium in 1994–1999 but find a second, higher equilibrium emerging in 1999–2004 – evidencing a shift from unimodal toward a bimodal asset distribution. The most deprived region exhibits a low-level stagnant equilibrium despite significant rural income growth nationwide.