Selecting the Best? Spillover and Shadows in Elimination Tournaments
研究淘汰赛中过去、当前和未来的竞争如何影响强手获胜概率，发现阴影效应和努力溢出效应，并用高赌注锦标赛数据验证。
We consider how past, current, and future competition within an elimination tournament affect the probability that the stronger player wins. We present a two-stage model that yields the following main results: (1) a shadow effect wherein the stronger the expected future competitor, the lower the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage; and (2) an effort spillover effect wherein previous effort reduces the probability that the stronger player wins in the current stage. We test our theory predictions using data from high-stakes tournaments. Empirical results suggest that shadow and spillover effects influence match outcomes and have already been priced into betting markets. This paper was accepted by Bruno Cassiman, business strategy.